SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICES

Space Science Center
National Institute of Aeronautics and Space
LAPAN - Indonesia

Today

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Minor

Forecast

Geomagnet

Active

Ionosphere

Quiet

Issued : 2018 April 20 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity was in the quiet level. No significant flare, CME nor solar radio burst occurred in the last 24 hours. Today's observation from SDO/HMI Intensitygram shows one small insignificant region (NOAA 2706) with statistically low probability of strong flaring. Based on STEREO EUVI/AIA 195 observation, no more active region is predicted to appear from the east limb of solar disk.
Based on today's condition,

  • the solar activity 20 April 2018 per 08.00 UT is predicted to remain quiet. Valid for 24 hours.
  • the solar activity 21 April 2018 per 08.00 UT is predicted to remain quiet. Valid for 24 hours.
  • the solar activity 22 April 2018 per 08.00 UT is predicted to remain quiet. Valid for 24 hours.

Geomagnetic Activity

Geomagnetic activity was on quiet level.

Today's geomagnetic activity was on quiet level. Solar wind speed was increased from 270 km/s to 390 km/s. IMF was varied between -14 to 6 nT. The geoeffective coronal hole was at central equator with negative polarity, while the other one on the south pole was not geoeffective. There substorm for the last 24 hours, and the latest occured at 20 April 2018, 02:30 UT with intensity around 500 nT still on progress.

  • Active level is expected on April 20th, 08:00 UT - April 21th, 07:59 UT. 
  • Quiet level is expected on April 21th, 08:00 UT - April 22th, 07:59 UT.
  • Quiet level is expected on April 22th, 08:00 UT - April 23th, 07:59 UT.

Ionosphere Activity

Ionosphere was in minor condition.

There was depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median values at least for 1.5 hours. There was  no increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values. There was Spread-F event at least 2 hours. The Sporadic-E occurred in the night time and day time with foEs value less than foF2 for 2 hours. The W-index mean value was -2. S4 index value (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was in quiet condition with value less than 0.25 over Bandung.

  • The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quiet for 20 April 2018 08:00 UT - 21 April 2018 07:59 UT.
  • The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quiet for 21 April 2018 08:00 UT - 22 April 2018 07:59 UT.
  • The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quiet for 22 April 2018 08:00 UT - 23 April 2018 07:59 UT.

Navigation

The Error positioning was minor based on W-index value -2.

  • The probability of error positioning for 20 April 2018 08:00 UT - 21 April 2018 07:59 UT is minor during daytime and nighttime based on W-index value that going to be -2.
  • The probability of error positioning for 21 April 2018 08:00 UT - 22 April 2018 07:59 UT is minor during daytime and nighttime based on W-index value that going to be-2.
  • The probability of error positioning for 22 April 2018 08:00 UT - 23 April 2018 07:59 UT is minor during daytime and nighttime based on W-index value that going to be -2.

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression was in minor condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in quiet condition.

  • The probability of MUF depression for 20 April 2018 08:00 UT - 21 April 2018 07:59 UT is minor due to previous and prediction of geomagnetic activity.
  • The probability of MUF depression for 21 April 2018 08:00 UT - 22 April 2018 07:59 UT is minor due to previous and prediction of geomagnetic activity.
  • The probability of MUF depression for 22 April 2018 08:00 UT - 23 April 2018 07:59 UT is minor due to previous and prediction of geomagnetic activity.
  • The probability of SWF for 20 April 2018 08:00 UT - 21 April 2018 07:59 UT is minor due to the prediction of solar flare activities.
  • The probability of SWF for 21 April 2018 08:00 UT - 22 April 2018 07:59 UT is minor due to the prediction of solar flare activities.
  • The probability of SWF for 22 April 2018 08:00 UT - 23 April 2018 07:59 UT is minor due to the prediction of solar flare activities.

Satellites

Today Electron flux was around 1000 [/cm2/sec/sr] or in High level.   

  • Low electron flux is expected on April 20th, 08:00 UT - April 21th, 07:59 UT.  
  • Low electron flux is expected on April 21th, 08:00 UT - April 22th, 07:59 UT.
  • Low electron flux is expected on April 22th, 08:00 UT - April 23th, 07:59 UT. 

The flux of high-energy proton was in the quiet level due to low solar activity. Based on today's condition and promising solar activity forecasts,

  • the flux of high-energy proton 20 April 2018 per 08.00 UT is predicted to remain in quiet level. Valid for 24 hours.
  • the flux of high-energy proton 21 April 2018 per 08.00 UT is predicted to remain in quiet level. Valid for 24 hours.
  • the flux of high-energy proton 22 April 2018 per 08.00 UT is predicted to remain in quiet level. Valid for 24 hours.