SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICES

Space Science Center
National Institute of Aeronautics and Space
LAPAN - Indonesia

2017 Aug 18

Geomagnet

Active

Ionosphere

Quiet

Forecast

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Quiet

Issued : 2017 August 19 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity is currently on the quiet level with a dozen of B-class flares last 48 hours. No solar radio-burst detected in the last 48 hours. Today observation from SDO/HMI Intensitygram shows one active region with the spot (NOAA2671). NOAA2671 decreases its area and complexity. One CME (16 August, 15:36 UT) with wide angular width hurled to the east was detected by CACTUS in the last 48 hours. This CME was related to filament eruption. According to far side observations from STEREO EUVI/AIA195, no active region will appear from the east limb in the next 72 hours.

Accordingly, based on the solar disk condition and activities:
• Solar activity per 18 August 2017 08 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for 24 hours.
• Solar activity per 19 August 2017 08 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for 24 hours.
• Solar activity per 20 August 2017 08 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for 24 hours.

Geomagnetic Activity

On August 16th, 08:00 UT - August 17th, 07:59 UT geomagnetic activity was on quiet level and enhance to active level in the last 24 hours.                                                                                                    

Today's geomagnetic activity (18 August 2017) was on active level. Solar wind speed increased from 450 km/s to 650 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was varied between -13 to 7 nT. Today's coronal hole on north pole elongated to equator was geoeffective. There was substorm in the last 24 hours begin at 07:00 UT on 17 August 2017 with intensity less than 2000 nT lasted for 21 hours.

Quiet level is expected on August 18th, 08:00 UT - August 19th, 07:59 UT.

Quiet level is expected on August 19th, 08:00 UT - August 20th, 07:59 UT.                                                                        
Quiet level is expected on August 20th, 08:00 UT - August 21th, 07:59 UT.

Ionosphere Activity

Ionosphere was in quiet conditions on August 16th, 08:00 UT - August 18th, 07:59 UT.

There was no depression of foF2 lower than 30% from its median. There was no increment of fmin more than 30% from its median values.  There was the Spread-F event with total duration up to 5 hours during midnight. The Sporadic-E occurred on day and nighttime with foEs values was above the foF2. The w-index mean value was 3. Ionospheric scintillation was quiet over Bandung and Biak with S4 index value less than 0.25.

  • The ionosphere activity for August 18th, 08:00 UT - August 19th, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet. 
  • The ionosphere activity for August 19th, 08:00 UT - August 20th, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet. 
  • The ionosphere activity for August 20th, 08:00 UT - August 21st, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.

Navigation

The Error positioning was medium with W-index value was 3 for the last 24 hours.

  • The probability of error positioning for August 18th, 08:00 UT - August 19th, 07:59 UT is medium during daytime and nighttime based on W-index prediction value is going to be 3.
  • The probability of error positioning for August 19th, 08:00 UT - August 20th, 07:59 UT is medium during daytime and nighttime based on W-index prediction value is going to be 3.
  • The probability of error positioning for  August 20th, 08:00 UT - August 21st, 07:59 UT is medium during daytime and nighttime based on W-index prediction value is going to be 3.

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression was in quiet condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in quiet condition on August 16th, 08:00 UT - August 18th, 07:59 UT.

 

  • The probability of MUF depression for August 18th, 08:00 UT - August 19th, 07:59 UT is quiet due to previous and prediction of geomagnetic activity.
  • The probability of SWF  August 18th, 08:00 UT - August 19th, 07:59 UT is quiet due to the prediction of solar flare activities.

 

  • The probability of MUF depression for August 19th, 08:00 UT - August 20th, 07:59 UT is quiet due to previous and prediction of geomagnetic activity.
  • The probability of SWF  August 19th, 08:00 UT - August 20th, 07:59 UT is quiet due to a prediction of solar flare activities.

 

  • The probability of MUF depression for  August 20th, 08:00 UT - August 21st, 07:59 UT is quiet due to previous and prediction of geomagnetic activity.
  • The probability of SWF   August 20th, 08:00 UT - August 21st, 07:59 UT is quiet due to a prediction of solar flare activities.

Satellites

In the last, the flux of high energy proton was far below the threshold so that the activity level is quiet. This activity level is
predicted to remain quiet for the next day.
• The activity of high energy proton per 18 August 2017 08 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for 24 hours.
• The activity of high energy proton per 19 August 2017 08 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for 24 hours.
• The activity of high energy proton per 20 August 2017 08 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for 24 hours.

The Electron flux was around 1000 [/cm2/sec/sr] or in high level from August 16th, 08:00 UT - August 17th, 07:59UT and decreased to low level on August 17th, 08:00 UT - August 18th, 07:59UT                                  

Low electron flux is expected on August 18th, 08:00 UT - August 19th, 07:59 UT.

High electron flux is expected on August 19th, 08:00 UT - August 20th, 07:59 UT.                                                              
High electron flux is expected on August 20th, 08:00 UT - August 21th, 07:59 UT.