SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICES

Space Science Center
National Institute of Aeronautics and Space
LAPAN - Indonesia

2017 Mar 29

Geomagnet

Active

Ionosphere

Moderate

Forecast

Geomagnet

Active

Ionosphere

Minor

Issued : 2017 March 29 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity level in the last 24 hours is eruptive. Lately there were three C-class flare with maximum flare was C3.2 from NOAA 2645. Today observation shows three active region (NOAA 2644, 2645, and 2646) and one h-alpha plage (NOAA 2643). NOAA 2644 has decreased on its magnetic activity while NOAA 2645 increased. Based on SOHO/LASCO C2 observation, two CME event detected in the last 24 hours. Based on STEREO EUVI/AIA195, no active region will appear from the east solar limb in the next 24 hour. The characteristic of active region NOAA 2645 shows that the Sun will erupt.                                                               

• The solar activity on March, 29 2017 from 08:00 UT is predicted to be eruptive, valid for 24 hours. 

 

Geomagnetic Activity

Geomagnetic activity was minor storm on March 27th, 08:00 UT - March 28th, 07:59 UT;

Geomagnetic activity was active on March 28th, 08:00 UT - March 29th, 07:59 UT;

Today's geomagnetic activity was in active level. Solar wind speed was fluctuative around 700 km/s. IMF was varied between -5 to 5 nT. Today's geoeffective coronal hole was located around equator expand to southern hemisphere. Latest substorm has started on March 27th, 2017 at 2 UT with intensity less than 1500 nT and is in progress.

Active level is expected in the next 24 hours

Ionosphere Activity

Ionosphere was in quiet conditions on 28 March 2017 but in a moderate condition on 29 March 2017. 

Moderate condition occurred due to there was depression of foF2 more than 30% from it's median values with total duration up to 4 hours and 30 minutes. There was no increment of fmin more than 30% from it's median values. There were no occurence of  Spread-F from Sumedang station. The maximum value of daily median TEC over Bandung on 27 to 28 March 2017 were 53.98 TECU;55.42 TECU; over Mandado were 35.67 TECU; 39.75 TECU; and over Biak were 46.38 TECU; 59.67 TECU. W-index mean value was 1 on 27 to 28 March 2017. Ionospheric scintillations over Bandung were quiet on 27 and 28 March 2017, eventhough moderate on 27 and 28  March over Mando and strong on 27 and 28 March over Biak. 

Minor condition is expected for ionospheric activity in for the next 24 hours due to geomagnetic activities and flare activities.

Navigation

The Error positioning was normal during daytime and nighttime on 27 to 28 March 2017.

The probability of error positioning  for the next 24 hours is normal during daytime and nighttime based on W-index prediction value is going to be 1.

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression was in Quiet condition on 27 March and was strong on 28 March. The short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in quiet condition on March 27 to 28 March.

  • The probability of MUF depression  for the next 24 hours is moderate due to previous  and prediction of geomagnetic activity .
  • The probability of SWF  for the next 24 hours is quiet due to prediction of solar flare activities.

Satellites

The flux of high energy proton was far below the threshold for the last 24 hours so that the activity level is quiet

• The flux of high energy proton on March, 29 2017 from 08:00 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for 24 hours. 

The electron flux was around 100 [/cm2/sec/sr] or in low level on March 27th, 08:00 UT - March 28th, 07:59 UT;

The electron flux was around 10,000 [/cm2/sec/sr] or in very high level on March 27th, 08:00 UT - March 28th, 07:59 UT;

Very high electron flux is expected in the next 24 hours.