SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICES

Space Science Center
National Institute of Aeronautics and Space
LAPAN - Indonesia

Today

Flare

Eruptive

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Moderate

Scintillation

Minor

Forecast

Flare

Quiet

Geomagnet

Active

Ionosphere

Moderate

Scintillation

Moderate

Issued : 2016 September 28 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Current solar activity level is eruptive. In the last 24 hours, only one C-class flare (C1.0) has occured on September 27, 2016, peaked at 07:48 UT from NOAA 2597 and no solar radio bursts were detected.

Today's observation showed only one regions with spots (NOAA 2597) with the tendency to be decreasing on its magnetic activity while its area is increasing. In the last 24 hours, CME event with narrow angular width and quite slow speed was detected hurled to the west direction according to SOHO/LASCO C2 observations. Yesterday, a filament eruption was shown at 22:45 UT around existing active region based on SDO/AIA 304 observation. No active region will emerge from east solar limb in the next 24 hours according to STEREO EUVI/AIA195 observations. 

With current active regions state, solar activity is predicted on an quiet level for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic Activity

Today's geomagnetic activity is Quiet based on K index.

In the last 24 hours, geomagnetic activity was on quiet level. Solar wind speed was increasing from 500 km/s to 700 km/s. IMF was varied between -10 to 10 nT. Today's geoeffective coronal holes was elongated from northern to equator solar hemisphere. Latest substorm has started at September 27th, 2016 at 18 UT with intensity less than 1500 nT and is still going on.

Active level is expected in the next 24 hours due to high speed stream from geoeffective coronal hole.

Ionosphere Activity

Ionosphere was in Moderate disturabence conditions for the last 24 hours.

There was depression of critical frequencies of F/F2 layers (foF2) more than 30% from its median values  for 2 hours based on Sumedang data. There was no significant increment of fmin more than 30% from the median values. No occurrence of Spread-F over Indonesia. The Sporadic-E layers  occured day and nighttime with foEs up to 4.81 MHz at 08:00 LT (UT+7) over Sumedang. The value of foEs were below the foF2 value.
The maximum value of daily median TEC on September 27 over Bandung was 53.28 TECU at 16:00 LT. Over Biak the maximum TEC value was 49.38 TECU at 13:00 LT. W-index mean value on September 27, 2016 was 1.
Ionospheric scintillation over Indonesian sector on September 27, 2016 over Bandung and Biak were minor with S4 index more than 0.25 slightly.

  • Quiet condition is expected for ionospheric activity in the next 24 hours due to geomagnetic activities and flare activities.
  • Moderate condition is expected for scintillation activity in the next 24 hours during nighttime based on annual variation of ionospheric scintillation. and current solar cycle activity

Navigation

For the past 24 hours, the Error positioning was normal during daytime and nighttime. The Loss of lock was in Quiet condition.

  • The probability of error positioning for next 24 hours is normal during daytime and nighttime based on annual variation of TEC value and prediction of W index.
  • The probability of loss of lock for next 24 hours is quiet during nighttime based on annual variation of  ionospheric scintillation.

HF Radio Communication

For the last 24 hours, the Radio Blackout was in strong conditions due to depression of foF2 for 2 hours. Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) and fading were in slight chance disturbance condition.

  • The probability of Radio Blackout for next 24 hours is  strong due to previous geomagnetic activity for the  last 24 hours.
  • The probability of SWF for next 24 hours due to predicted quiet flare activities is slight.
  • The probablility of Fading for next 24 hours during pre and postmidnight is moderate, due to predicted of Spread-F occurrences which related to annual variation of Spread-F and the current solar activity cycle.

Satellites

Within the last 24 hours, flux of high energy proton was far below threshold so that the activity level is quiet. This activity level is predicted to remain quiet for the next 24 hours.

The electron flux was around 1000 [/cm2/sec/sr] in past 24 hours. High electron flux is expected for next 24 hours.