SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICESS

Space Science Center
National Institute of Aeronautics and Space
LAPAN - Indonesia

Today

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Minor

Forecast

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Minor

Issued : 2020 July 10 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

ESSENTIAL INFORMATION FOR SPACE WEATHER COMMUNITIES

HF Radio Communication

MUF Depression

Shortwave Fadeout / Radio Blackout

Application

NAVIGATION

Error Positioning

SATELLITES

High Energy Proton

High Energy Electron

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity was quiet for the last 24 hours. Neither flare nor solar radio burst occurred in the last 24 hours. The CME hurled west with 58 degrees angular width and 226 km/s median velocity on July 9th, 02:24 UT and the others with 6 degrees angular width and 281 km/s median velocity on July 9th, 03:24 UT and with 8 degrees angular width and 241 km/s median velocity on July 9th, 13:36 UT . The latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data shows an H-Alpha plage (NOAA 12766). STEREO EUVI/AIA 195 observation shows no new active region is going to appear from the east limb of the Solar disk in the next 72 hours.

Based on today's condition,

  • solar activity on July 10th, 08:00 UT-July 11th, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet,
  • solar activity on July 11th, 08:00 UT-July 12th, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet,
  • solar activity on July 12th, 08:00 UT-July 13th, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.

 

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was in quiet level for the last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed decreased from 350 km/s to 300 km/s. The North-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated from -4 to 3 nT. There was a geoeffective coronal hole at the central equator, while the others at the north pole and south pole were not geoeffective.

  • Quiet level geomagnetic is expected on July 10th, 08:00 UT-July 11th, 07:59 UT.
  • Quiet level geomagnetic is expected on July 11th, 08:00 UT-July 12th, 07:59 UT.
  • Quiet level geomagnetic is expected on July 12th, 08:00 UT-July 13th, 07:59 UT.

Ionospheric Activity

The Ionosphere was disturbed on minor conditions for the last 24 hours.

There was a depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median value for 105 minutes. There was increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values for 15 minutes. The Spread-F occurred for 135 minutes duration. The Sporadic-E occurred in the night and daytime with foEs value exceeded the foF2 several times for 1140 minutes. The W-index mean value was -1. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation ) was less than 0.5 over Bandung.

  • The ionosphere conditions on July 10th, 08.00 UT - July 11th, 07.59 UT is predicted to be minor.
  • The ionosphere conditions on July 11th, 08.00 UT - July 12th, 07.59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
  • The ionosphere conditions on July 12th, 08.00 UT - July 13th, 07.59 UT is predicted to be quiet.

 

 

 

Navigation

Based on W-index, the error of the single frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours was in normal level.

  • Based on the prediction of W-index = -1, the probability of error positioning on July 10th, 08.00 UT - July 11th, 07.59 UT is predicted on normal level.
  • Based on the prediction of W-index = -1, the probability of error positioning on July 11th, 08.00 UT - July 12th, 07.59 UT is predicted on normal level.
  • Based on the prediction of W-index = 1, the probability of error positioning on July 12th, 08.00 UT - July 13th, 07.59 UT is predicted on normal level.

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression was in moderate condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in quiet for the last 24 hours.

  • The MUF depression on July 10th, 08.00 UT - July 11th, 07.59 UT is predicted on moderate level based on the LAPAN Time Series Model.
  • The MUF depression on July 11th, 08.00 UT - July 12th, 07.59 UT is predicted on quiet level due to previous geomagnetic activity.
  • The MUF depression on July 12th, 08.00 UT - July 13th, 07.59 UT is predicted on quiet level due to previous geomagnetic activity.

 

  • The SWF on July 10th, 08.00 UT - July 11th, 07.59 UT is predicted on quiet level due to the prediction of the solar flare.
  • The SWF on July 11th, 08.00 UT - July 12th, 07.59 UT is predicted on quiet level due to the prediction of the solar flare.
  • The SWF on July 12th, 08.00 UT - July 13th, 07.59 UT is predicted on quiet level due to the prediction of the solar flare.

Satellites

The maximum value of electron flux was less than 1000 particles/cm².sec.sr or in low level for the last 24 hours.

Low level electron flux is expected on July 10th, 08:00 UT-July 11th, 07:59 UT,
Low level electron flux is expected on July 11th, 08:00 UT-July 12th, 07:59 UT,
Low level electron flux is expected on July 12th, 08:00 UT-July 13th, 07:59 UT.

The flux of high-energy proton was quiet for the last 24 hours.

Based on solar activity prediction,

  • the flux of high-energy proton on July 10th, 08:00 UT-July 11th, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet,
  • the flux of high-energy proton on July 11th, 08:00 UT-July 12th, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet,
  • the flux of high-energy proton on July 12th, 08:00 UT-July 13th, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.