SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICESS

Space Science Center
National Institute of Aeronautics and Space
LAPAN - Indonesia

2021 Oct 22

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Quiet

Forecast

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Quiet

Issued : 2021 October 24 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

ESSENTIAL INFORMATION FOR SPACE WEATHER COMMUNITIES

HF Radio Communication

MUF Depression

Shortwave Fadeout / Radio Blackout

Application

NAVIGATION

Error Positioning

SATELLITES

High Energy Proton

High Energy Electron

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity was quiet for the last 24 hours.
Neither significant flare nor solar radio bursts occurred in the last 24 hours. The CME occurred twice with 526 km/s maximum median velocity and 26 degrees maximum angular width. The latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data shows one active region (NOAA 12886) and one bright region from the eastern limb. STEREO EUVI/AIA 195 observation shows two new active regions is going to appear from the east limb of the Solar disk in the next 72 hours.

Based on today's condition,
solar activity for October 22nd, 08:00 UT-October 23rd, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet,
solar activity for October 23rd, 08:00 UT-October 24th, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet,
solar activity for October 24th, 08:00 UT-October 25th, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.

 

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was in quiet level for last 24 hours.

The solar wind speed fluctuated from 466 km/s to 548 km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated from -2 to 3 nT. There was no geoeffective coronal holes while the others at the north pole, and south pole were not geoeffective.

Quiet level geomagnetic is expected for October 22nd, 08:00 UT-October 23rd, 07:59 UT.
Quiet level geomagnetic is expected for October 23rd, 08:00 UT-October 24th, 07:59 UT.
Quiet level geomagnetic is expected for October 24th, 08:00 UT-October 25th, 07:59 UT.

Ionospheric Activity

The ionosphere was on quiet level for the last 24 hours.

There was no depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median values. There was increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values for 195 minutes. The Spread-F not occurred. The Sporadic-E occurred in the night and daytime for 510 minutes. The W-index mean value was -1. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was less than 0.5 over Bandung.

The ionosphere activity on October 22nd, 08:00 UT-October 23rd, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
The ionosphere activity on October 23rd, 08:00 UT-October 24th, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
The ionosphere activity on October 24th, 08:00 UT-October 25th, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.

Navigation

Based on W-index, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning for the last 24 hours was in normal level.

Based on the prediction of W-index = 1, the probability of error positioning on October 22nd, 08:00 UT-October 23rd, 07:59 UT is predicted on normal level.
Based on the prediction of W-index = 1, the probability of error positioning on October 23rd, 08:00 UT-October 24th, 07:59 UT is predicted on normal level.
Based on the prediction of W-index = -1, the probability of error positioning on October 24th, 08:00 UT-October 25th, 07:59 UT is predicted on normal level.

HF Radio Communication

The MUF depression was in quiet level and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in strong level for the last 24 hours.

The MUF depression on October 22nd, 08:00 UT-October 23rd, 07:59 UT is predicted on quiet level based on LAPAN Time Series method.

The MUF depression on October 23rd, 08:00 UT-October 24th, 07:59 UT is predicted on quiet due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The MUF depression on October 24th, 08:00 UT-October 25th, 07:59 UT is predicted on quiet due to previous of geomagnetic activity.

The SWF on October 22nd, 08:00 UT-October 23rd, 07:59 UT is predicted in quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.

The SWF on October 23rd, 08:00 UT-October 24th, 07:59 UT is predicted in quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.

The SWF on October 24th, 08:00 UT-October 25th, 07:59 UT is predicted in quiet level due to the prediction of solar flare.

Satellites

The maximum value of electron flux was less than 1000 particles/cm².sec.sr or in low level in the last 24 hours.

Low level electron flux is expected for October 22nd, 08:00 UT-October 23rd, 07:59 UT.
Low level electron flux is expected for October 23rd, 08:00 UT-October 24th, 07:59 UT.
Low level electron flux is expected for October 24th, 08:00 UT-October 25th, 07:59 UT.

The flux of high-energy proton was quiet for the last 24 hours.

Based on solar activity prediction,
the flux of high-energy proton for October 22nd, 08:00 UT-October 23rd, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet,
the flux of high-energy proton for October 23rd, 08:00 UT-October 24th, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet,
the flux of high-energy proton for October 24th, 08:00 UT-October 25th, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.