SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICES

Space Science Center
National Institute of Aeronautics and Space
LAPAN - Indonesia

2018 Jul 17

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Minor

Forecast

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Quiet

Issued : 2018 July 17 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activitiy was on the quiet level. Neither flare, CME nor solar radio burst occurred in the last 24 hours. Today's observation from SDO/HMI reveals that there is no active region, while STEREO EUVI/AIA195 observation reveals no new active region to appear from the east limb in the next 24 hours.

Based on today's condition, the solar activity is predicted to be quiet for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic Activity

In the last 24 hours, geomagnetic activitiy was on quiet level. Solar wind speed was increased from 310 to 410 km/s. IMF was varied between -8 to 8 nT. Today's geoeffective coronal hole was at equator, while the one at north pole and south pole were not. The last substorms occured on July, 17th around 05 UT, with intensity less than 1000 nT and still on going.

Quiet level is expected in the next 24 hours.

Ionosphere Activity

Ionosphere was in minor condition for the last 24 hours. There was no depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median values. There was increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values for 2 hours. There was a pre and post-midnight Spread-F event for 1 hours and 15 minutes. The Sporadic-E occurred in the night and daytime with foEs value exceeded the foF2 for some time. The W-index mean value was +2. S4 index value (condition of ionospheric scintillation) over Bandung and Biak was less than 0.25.

The ionosphere activity is predicted to be quiet for the next 24 hours.

Navigation

The Error positioning was slight based on W-index value.

The probability of error positioning for next the 24 hours is slight during daytime and nighttime based on the W-index value that going to be +2.

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression was in quiet condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in a moderate condition

  • The probability of MUF depression for next the 24 hours is quiet due to previous and prediction of geomagnetic activity.
  • The probability of SWF for next the 24 hours is quiet due to the prediction of solar flare activities.

Satellites

Today's electron flux was around 10 particles/cm2.sec.sr or in the low level.  Low electron flux is expected in the next 24 hours.

In the last 24 hours, the flux of high-energy proton was in the quiet level due to low solar activity. Based on today's condition, the flux of high-energy proton is predicted to be quiet for the next 24 hours.