SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICES

Space Science Center
National Institute of Aeronautics and Space
LAPAN - Indonesia

2017 Feb 17

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Quiet

Forecast

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Quiet

Issued : 2017 February 19 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity is quiet on Feb, 16 2017.

Today's obervation shows two peacefull active regions with spots (NOAA 2635 & 2636) an one H-alpha plage (NOAA 2634) on the solar disk. Both active regions stable. According to the last 24 hours space based observation, there was no CME, no flare, no radio bursts and no filament eruption observed. Three active regions are expected to emerge from the east solar limb for the next 24 - 72 hours according to STEREO EUVI/AIA195 observation. There is no record on high activity on those three expected active regions that will return. Thus, solar activity is predicted to remain quiet based on the physical characteristic of existing regions.

  • The solar activity for Feb, 17 2017 08 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for 24 hours. 
  • The solar activity for Feb, 18 2017 08 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for 24 hours. 
  • The solar activity for Feb, 19 2017 08 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for 24 hours. 

Geomagnetic Activity

Geomagnetic activity on February 17th, 2017 before 08 UT was in quiet level based on K index.

Geomagnetic activity was in quiet level on February 17th, 2017. Solar wind speed was increase from 300 km/s to 550 km/s. IMF was varied between -10 to 10 nT. Today's geoeffective coronal hole was located at southern solar's equator, while the other ones at northern and southern were not geoeffective. Substorm in last 24 hours occurred on February 16th, 2017 at 12 UT with intensity less than 1500 nT for 3 hours and on February 17th, 2017 at 3 UT with intensity less than 1000 nT and still in progress.   

  • Quiet level is expected for Feb, 17 2017 08 UT valid for 24 hours.
  • Quiet level is expected for Feb, 18 2017 08 UT valid for 24 hours.
  • Quiet level is expected for Feb, 19 2017 08 UT valid for 24 hours.

Ionosphere Activity

Ionosphere was in Quiet conditions on February 17th.

There was no depression of foF2 more than 30% from it's median values neither the increment of fmin more than 30% from it's median values. There was no occurences  of  Spread-F . The Sporadic-E layers occured in the morning with foEs below the foF2 values. The maximum value of daily median TEC over Bandung, Biak and Manado on 16 February 2017 were 46.96 TECU; 38.11TECU; and 28.28TECU. W-index mean value for the last 24 hours was -2. Ionospheric scintillation over Bandung, Manado, and Biak was quiet on 16 February, 2017 with S4 Index less than 0.25. 

  • The ionosphere activity for Feb, 17 2017 08 UT is predicted to be minor, valid for 24 hours. 
  • The ionosphere activity for Feb, 18 2017 08 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for 24 hours. 
  • The ionosphere activity for Feb, 19 2017 08 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for 24 hours. 

Navigation

For the past 24 hours, the Error positioning was slight during daytime and nighttime.

  • The probability of error positioning for Feb, 17 2017 08 UT is normal during daytime and nighttime based on W-index prediction value is going to be -1.
  • The probability of error positioning for Feb, 18 2017 08 UT is normal during daytime and nighttime based on W-index prediction value is going to be -1.  
  • The probability of error positioning for Feb, 19 2017 08 UT is normal during daytime and nighttime based on W-index prediction value is going to be -1.  

HF Radio Communication

For the last 24 hours, the MUF depression was in  Quiet condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in quiet condition, also

  • The probability of MUF depression  for Feb, 17 2017 08 UT is moderate  due to previous  and prediction of geomagnetic activity .
  • The probability of SWF  for Feb, 17 2017 08 UT is quiet due to predicted active flare activities.
  • The probability of MUF depression  for Feb, 18 2017 08 UT is quiet due to previous  and prediction of geomagnetic activity.
  • The probability of SWF  for Feb, 18 2017 08 UT is quiet due to predicted active flare activities.
  • The probability of MUF depression  for Feb, 19 2017 08 UT is quiet due to previous  and prediction of geomagnetic activity.
  • The probability of SWF  for Feb, 19 2017 08 UT is quiet due to predicted active flare activities.

Satellites

The flux of high energy proton was far below the threshold so that the activity level is quiet

  • The flux of high energy proton for Feb, 17 2017 08 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for 24 hours. 
  • The flux of high energy proton for Feb, 18 2017 08 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for 24 hours. 
  • The flux of high energy proton for Feb, 19 2017 08 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for 24 hours. 

The electron flux on February 17th, 2017 before 08 UT was around 100 [/cm2/sec/sr] or in Low level.

  • Low electron flux is expected for Feb, 17 2017 08 UT valid for 24 hours.
  • Low electron flux is expected for Feb, 18 2017 08 UT valid for 24 hours.
  • High electron flux is expected for Feb, 19 2017 08 UT valid for 24 hours.