SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICES

Space Science Center
National Institute of Aeronautics and Space
LAPAN - Indonesia

2018 Oct 18

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Strong

Forecast

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Moderate

Issued : 2018 October 18 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

ESSENTIAL INFORMATION FOR SPACE WEATHER COMMUNITIES

HF Radio Communication

MUF Depression

Shortwave Fadeout / Radio Blackout

Aviation

NAVIGATION

Error Positioning

SATELLITES

High Energy Proton

High Energy Electron

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity was quiet. There were no significant flare, CME nor solar radio burst occurred in the last 24 hours. Today's observation shows one decaying active region, i.e. NOAA 12725, transiting the solar central meridian. According to STEREO EUVI/AIA195 observation, no new active region is predicted to appear from the east limb in the next 24 hours.

Based on today's condition, the solar activity is predicted to be quiet in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activitiy for the last 24 hours was on quiet level. Solar wind speed decreasing from 450 to 350 km/s. IMF was varied between -2 to +5 nT. Today's coronal holes were at north-south solar poles and both were not geoeffective. There is no substorm occurence for the last 24 hours.

Quiet level is expected in the next 24 hours.

Ionosphere Activity

Ionosphere was in strong conditions for the last 24 hours. There was depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median value. There was increment of fmin of more than 30% of its median values. There was no Spread-F event. The Sporadic-E occurred at daytime and nighttime. The W-index mean value was 1. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation ) was less than 0.25 over Bandung.

The ionospheric activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.

Navigation

The error positioning was normal for the last 24 hours based on the W-index value.

The probability of error positioning for the next 24 hours is slight during daytime and nighttime based on the W-index value that is going to be 2.

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression was in severe condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in quiet condition for the last 24 hours.

The probability of MUF depression for the next 24 hours is strong based on LAPAN's time series model.

The probability of SWF for the next 24 hours is quiet due to the prediction of Solar flare activities.

Satellites

The electron fluxes for the last 24 hours were around 1000 particles/cm2.sec.sr or in high level.
High electron flux is expected in the next 24 hours.

The flux of high-energy proton was quiet due to extremely low solar activity in the last 24 hours. Based on today's condition, the flux of high-energy proton is predicted to be quiet in the next 24 hours.