SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICES

Space Science Center
National Institute of Aeronautics and Space
LAPAN - Indonesia

2018 Dec 18

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Moderate

Forecast

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Quiet

Issued : 2018 December 18 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

ESSENTIAL INFORMATION FOR SPACE WEATHER COMMUNITIES

HF Radio Communication

MUF Depression

Shortwave Fadeout / Radio Blackout

Aviation

NAVIGATION

Error Positioning

SATELLITES

High Energy Proton

High Energy Electron

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity was quiet in the last 24 hours. Neither significant event of flare, radio burst, nor coronal mass ejection was detected. Today's observation from SDO/HMI Intensitygram shows spotless Sun with two H-alpha plages (NOAA 12730 and NOAA 12731). According to STEREO EUVI/AIA195 observation, no new active region is predicted to appear from the east limb for the next 24 hours. 

Based on today's condition, the solar activity is predicted to be quiet for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was on quiet level on the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed was varied between 360 to 450 km/s. IMF was varied between -5 to +10 nT. Today' geoeffective coronal holes was at equator, while the other one at north pole was not geoeffective. Substorm was occurred at 16UT on December 17th 2018 with amplitude around 500 nT and duration of ~10 hours.

Quiet level is expected for the next 24 hours.

Ionosphere Activity

Ionosphere was in moderate condition for the last 24 hours. There were depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median value. There was no increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values. There was no Spread-F events. Sporadic-E occurred at day and nighttime. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) were less than 0.25 over Bandung.

The ionospheric activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be quiet.

Navigation

The Error Positioning was normal for for the last 24 hours based on the W index values.

The probability for Error Positioning for the next 24 hours is predicted to be normal based on the W index values that is going to be  -1.

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression was in strong condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in quiet condition for the last 24 hours.

The probability of MUF depression for the next 24 hours is quiet based on the prediction of LAPAN time series model.

The probability of SWF for the next 24 hours is quiet due to the prediction of solar flare activities.

Satellites

For the last 24 hours, electron flux was below 1000 particles/cm².sec.sr or the electron flux was on low level.

Low level electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours.

The flux of high-energy proton was quiet in the last 24 hours.

Due to extremely low solar activity, the flux of high-energy proton is predicted to be quiet for the next 24 hours.