SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICES

Space Science Center
National Institute of Aeronautics and Space
LAPAN - Indonesia

2018 Aug 16

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Minor

Forecast

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Quiet

Issued : 2018 August 19 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity was quiet. No flare, nor solar radio burst occurred in the last 24 hours. Today's observation shows one small  active region on the sun with low probability of flaring. According to STEREO EUVI/AIA195 observation, no new active region is predicted to appear from the east limb in the next 24 hours. Based on today's condition,

  • solar activity on 16 August per 08.00 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for the next 24 hours.
  • solar activity on 17 August per 08.00 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for the next 24 hours.
  • solar activity on 18 August per 08.00 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for the next 24 hours.
  • solar activity on 19 August per 08.00 UT is predicted to be quiet, valid for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic Activity

In the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic activity was on quiet level. 

Today's geomagnetic activity was on quiet level. Solar wind speed was gradually increased from 375 km/s to 550 km/s. IMF was varied between -10 to 8 nT. Today's geoeffective coronal hole were at north pole and western equator while another one at eastern equator is considered not geoeffective. There were substorms occurence in the last 24 hours. The last substorm occurs on 15 August at 21 UT with intensity less than 1000 nT and still going on.

  • Quiet level is expected at 08:00 UT of 16th August to 07:59 UT of 17th August 2018.
  • Quiet level is expected at 08:00 UT of 17th August to 07:59 UT of 18th August 2018.
  • Quiet level is expected at 08:00 UT of 18th August to 07:59 UT of 19th August 2018. 
  • Quiet level is expected at 08:00 UT of 19th August to 07:59 UT of 20th August 2018. 

Ionosphere Activity

Ionosphere was in minor conditions for the last 24 hours.

There was depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median value for 45 minutes. There was increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values for 180 minutes. There was Spread-F event for 240 minutes. The Sporadic-E occurred in the night and daytime with foEs value exceeded the foF2 for several hours. The W-index mean value was 3. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was more than 0.25 over Bandung.

  • The ionosphere activity for 16 August 2018, 08:00 UT - 17 August 2018, 07:59 UT is predicted to be minor.
  • The ionosphere activity for 17 August 2018, 08:00 UT - 18 August 2018, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
  • The ionosphere activity for 18 August 2018, 08:00 UT - 19 August 2018, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.
  • The ionosphere activity for 19 August 2018, 08:00 UT - 20 August 2018, 07:59 UT is predicted to be quiet.

Navigation

The Error positioning was medium for the last 24 hours based on W-index value.

  • The probability of error for 16 August 2018, 08:00 UT - 17 August 2018, 07:59 UT is medium during daytime and nighttime based on the W-index value that going to be 3.
  • The probability of error for 17 August 2018, 08:00 UT - 18 August 2018, 07:59 UT is medium during daytime and nighttime based on the W-index value that going to be 3.
  • The probability of error for 18 August 2018, 08:00 UT - 19 August 2018, 07:59 UT is medium during daytime and nighttime based on the W-index value that going to be 3.
  • The probability of error for 19 August 2018, 08:00 UT - 20 August 2018, 07:59 UT is slight during daytime and nighttime based on the W-index value that going to be 2.

 

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression was in moderate condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in quiet condition for the last 24 hours.

  • The probability of MUF depression for 16 August 2018, 08:00 UT - 17 August 2018, 07:59 UT is moderate based on LAPAN's time series model.
  • The probability of MUF depression for 17 August 2018, 08:00 UT - 18 August 2018, 07:59 UT is quiet due to previous and prediction of geomagnetic activity.
  • The probability of MUF depression for 18 August 2018, 08:00 UT - 19 August 2018, 07:59 UT is quiet due to previous and prediction of geomagnetic activity.
  • The probability of MUF depression for 19 August 2018, 08:00 UT - 20 August 2018, 07:59 UT is quiet due to previous and prediction of geomagnetic activity.
  • The probability of SWF for 16 August 2018, 08:00 UT - 17 August 2018, 07:59 UT is quiet due to the prediction of solar flare activities.
  • The probability of SWF for 17 August 2018, 08:00 UT - 18 August 2018, 07:59 UT is quiet due to the prediction of solar flare activities.
  • The probability of SWF for 18 August 2018, 08:00 UT - 19 August 2018, 07:59 UT is quiet due to the prediction of solar flare activities.
  • The probability of SWF for 19 August 2018, 08:00 UT - 20 August 2018, 07:59 UT is quiet due to the prediction of solar flare activities.

Satellites

In the last 24 hours, the electron flux were around 10 [/cm2/sec/sr] or in low level.  

  • Low electron flux is expected at 08:00 UT of 16th August to 07:59 UT of 17th August 2018.
  • Low electron flux is expected at 08:00 UT of 17th August to 07:59 UT of 18th August 2018.
  • Low electron flux is expected at 08:00 UT of 18th August to 07:59 UT of 19th August 2018.
  • Low electron flux is expected at 08:00 UT of 19th August to 07:59 UT of 20th August 2018.

The flux of high-energy proton was quiet. Due to extremely low solar activity, the flux of high-energy proton 

  • Quiet level is expected at 08:00 UT of 16th August to 07:59 UT of 17th August 2018.
  • Quiet level is expected at 08:00 UT of 17th August to 07:59 UT of 18th August 2018.
  • Quiet level is expected at 08:00 UT of 18th August to 07:59 UT of 19th August 2018. 
  • Quiet level is expected at 08:00 UT of 19th August to 07:59 UT of 20th August 2018.