SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICES

Space Science Center
National Institute of Aeronautics and Space
LAPAN - Indonesia

2020 Sep 28

Geomagnet

Moderate Storm

Ionosphere

Moderate

Forecast

Geomagnet

Active

Ionosphere

Minor

Issued : 2020 September 28 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

ESSENTIAL INFORMATION FOR SPACE WEATHER COMMUNITIES

HF Radio Communication

MUF Depression

Shortwave Fadeout / Radio Blackout

Application

NAVIGATION

Error Positioning

SATELLITES

High Energy Proton

High Energy Electron

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity was eruptive on September 25th, 08:00 UT-September 26th, 07:59 UT and quiet for September 26th, 08:00 UT-September 28th, 07:59 UT. Flare class C1.1 occurred at northeastern limb on September 25th, 23:59 UT-September 26th, 01:20 UT. Neither CME nor solar radio burst occurred in the last 72 hour. The latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram data shows an H-Alpha plage. STEREO EUVI/AIA 195 observation shows no new active region is going to appear from the east limb of the Solar disk in the next 24 hours.

Based on today's condition, solar activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be quiet.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was in active level for September 25th, 08:00 UT - September 26th, 07:59 UT.
The geomagnetic activity was in active level for September 26th, 08:00 UT - September 27th, 07:59 UT.
The geomagnetic activity was in moderate storm level for September 27th, 08:00 UT - September 28th, 07:59 UT.

The solar wind speed increased from 472 km/s to 660 km/s. The North-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated from -9 to 6 nT. There was geoeffective coronal hole at northern equator to northern equator, while no coronal hole was not geoeffective.

Active level geomagnetic is expected for the next 24 hours.

Ionospheric Activity

The ionosphere was on quiet level conditions for September 25th, 08:00 UT-September 26th, 07:59 UT.

The ionosphere was disturbed on minor level conditions for September 26th, 08:00 UT-September 27th, 07:59 UT.

The ionosphere was disturbed on moderate level conditions for September 27th, 08:00 UT-September 28th, 07:59 UT.

There was depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median values for 0, 30, and 240 minutes respectively for the last 3 days. There was an increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values for 15 minutes on September 25th, 08:00 UT-September 26th, 07:59 UT, 45 minutes on September 26th, 08:00 UT-September 27th, 07:59 UT, and 30 minutes on September 27th, 08:00 UT-September 28th, 07:59 UT. The Sporadic-E occurred in the night and daytime for 705, 690, and 780 minutes respectively for the last 3 days. The W-index mean value was 1, 1, and 2 for the last 3 days. The S4 index values (condition of ionospheric scintillation) was less than 0.5 over Bandung.

The ionosphere activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.

Navigation

Based on W-index, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning for September 25th, 08:00 UT-September 26th, 07:59 UT was in normal level.

Based on W-index, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning for September 26th, 08:00 UT-September 27th, 07:59 UT was in normal level.

Based on W-index, the error of the single-frequency GPS positioning for September 27th, 08:00 UT-September 28th, 07:59 UT was in slight level.

Based on the prediction of W-index = 2, the probability of error positioning for the next 24 hours is predicted in slight level.

HF Radio Communication

The MUF depression was in quiet level and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in quiet level on September 25th, 08:00 UT-September 26th, 07:59 UT.

The MUF depression was in minor level and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in moderate level on September 26th, 08:00 UT-September 27th, 07:59 UT.

The MUF depression was in strong level and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in minor level on September 27th, 08:00 UT-September 28th, 07:59 UT.

The MUF depression on the next 24 hours is predicted in moderate level based on the LAPAN Time Series method.

The SWF for the next 24 hours is predicted in quiet level due to the prediction of the solar flare.

Satellites

The maximum value of electron flux between 1000 - 10000 particles/cm².sec.sr or in high level for September 25th, 08:00 UT - September 26th, 07:59 UT.
The maximum value of electron flux between 1000 - 10000 particles/cm².sec.sr or in high level for September 26th, 08:00 UT - September 27th, 07:59 UT.
The maximum value of electron flux between 1000 - 10000 particles/cm².sec.sr or in high level for September 27th, 08:00 UT - September 28th, 07:59 UT.

High level electron flux is expected on the next 24 hours.

The flux of high-energy proton was quiet for September 25th, 08:00 UT-September 28th, 07:59 UT.

Based on solar activity prediction, the flux of high-energy proton for the next 24 hours is predicted to be quiet.