SPACE WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECAST SERVICES

Space Science Center
National Institute of Aeronautics and Space
LAPAN - Indonesia

2019 Mar 20

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Minor

Forecast

Geomagnet

Quiet

Ionosphere

Quiet

Issued : 2019 March 20 0800 UTC
Forecast Valid For 24 Hours

ESSENTIAL INFORMATION FOR SPACE WEATHER COMMUNITIES

HF Radio Communication

MUF Depression

Shortwave Fadeout / Radio Blackout

Aviation

NAVIGATION

Error Positioning

SATELLITES

High Energy Proton

High Energy Electron

Detailed Information

Solar Activity

Solar activity was quiet. Neither significant event of flare, radio burst, nor coronal mass ejection was detected for the last 24 hours. Based on the latest observation by SDO/HMI, two small active regions appear on the disk, one of which has not numbered yet. STEREO EUVI/AIA 195 observation shows indication of a new active region to appear from the east limb of the solar disk in the next 24 hours.
Based on today's condition, the solar activity from 20 March 08.00 UT to 21 March 07.59 UT is predicted to be quiet.

Geomagnetic Activity

The geomagnetic activity was on quiet level for the last 24 hours

Solar wind speed was increased from 350 km/s to 425 km/s. Bz component of IMF was fluctuating from -6 to 8 nT. None of the coronal hole which on southeastern part of the Sun and south pole were considered geoeffective.  Substorm activity for the last last 24 hours occured 19 March 2019 at 20:00 UT with intensity around 500 nT and lasted for 3 hours.

Quiet level is expected for the next 24 hours

Ionospheric Activity

Ionosphere was in minor conditions for the last 24 hours.

There were no depression of foF2 lower than 30% of its median value. There were increment of fmin more than 30% of its median values for 60 minutes.

The Sporadic-E occurred in the night and daytime for 720 minutes. The W-index mean value was +2 .

  • The ionosphere activity for the next 24 hours is predicted to be quiet.

Navigation

The Error positioning was slight for the last 24 hours, based on W index value.

  • The probability of error for the next 24 hours is normal during daytime and nighttime based on the W-index value that going to be +1.

HF Radio Communication

MUF depression was in quiet condition and Short Wave Fadeout (SWF) was in moderate condition for the last 24 hours.

  • The probability of MUF depression for the next 24 hours is quiet based on LAPAN's time series model.
  • The probability of SWF for the next 24 hours is quiet due to the prediction of solar flare activities.

Satellites

The electron flux was less than 10000 [particles/cm2.sec.sr], which means it was on high level for the last 24 hours.

High level electron flux is expected for the next 24 hours

The flux of high-energy proton was in quiet level due to extremely low solar activity. Based on solar activity predictions, the flux of high-energy proton from 20 March 08.00 UT to 21 March 07.59 UT is predicted to be quiet.